The UK will remain within the European Union (EU), according to the results of a new study undertaken by Emerging Markets and G10 independent strategist Olivier Desbarres.
Respondents are less confident about whether Greece will remain within the eurozone. While almost two-thirds (61 percent) think Greece will have the euro in three months time, only a third (32 percent) think this will still be the case in three years. This suggests a majority expect a deal between Greece and its creditors – a view reinforced by recent developments – but that this is only a short-term solution to a longer-term problem.
Nine out of 10 respondents (90 percent) forecast the UK would still be in the EU in 18 months time. The ratio drops slightly to 82 percent when the time horizon stretches to three years, and 68 percent at the end of the current parliament in five years. One in five respondents (18 percent) do not feel they can yet offer an opinion on whether the UK will still be in the EU in five years time.
The survey closed on July 11, before Greece and its creditors announced the outline of a new bailout package had been reached, but Desbarres says he thinks the results would have been broadly similar. He commented: “One could argue that the ratio of respondents expecting Greece to stay in the eurozone at least in the near-term would be a little higher now. However, things continue to change day by day. The Troika and Prime Minister Tsipras have agreed that there is a basis for an agreement on a new bailout package, and in exchange, the Syriza government has agreed to sweeping structural reform over and beyond the measures which it rejected in recent months and which the Greek electorate voted down at the July 5 referendum.
